Saturday, September 19, 2015

Peninsular Malaysia electricity demand forecast - my humble view with great concern

I am writing a bit about an observation from my own point of view.

I have written this 3 times in my previous postings. And I am writing it again.

My posting Aug 2012
My posting Feb 2012
My posting Aug 2010

First in Aug 2010 and the second in Feb 2012 and third Aug 2012.
This shows the IMPORTANCE of this subject, at least to myself.

It is about the Peninsular Malaysia electricity demand forecast. This is the start of any process in the electricity industry.

A forecast is something that you predict. Allah is the ALL knowing. Forecasts are all wrong to a certain degree. But we have to do it anyway.

I have said (in previous postings) that electricity demand growth is hovering around 2.0% per year, since 2012.

But with my latest observation of 4 factors, it could well be stagnant (0% growth)
The 4 factors are:-
1. Introduction of large amount of RE incentives (Renewable Energy)
2. Introduction of new technology in EE (Electicity Efficiency)
3. Climate change factor
4. Current world economic factor

Sufficient for me to stop just here. But, in a degree of certainty, I can say that the demand is going to be surprisingly low in the coming years.

Ya Rabb, You the Greatest and All knowing.

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