As Production Planner for the electricity, the main input to the plan is the electricity demand forecast.
For the past 2 years, the electricity forecast is becoming very challenging indeed. The electricity demand has been growing steadily and predictably since 2001 at an average rate of 4% per annum. In 2009, the demand for the VERY 1st time went into -2%. This is the effect of the global economic slowdown. It really hit hard on many companies, more than the slowdown in 1997 and 1987.
Anyway, 2010 the Malaysian economy bounce back strongly at 9% (1st half). This has a lot to do with the stimulus package from the government to kick-start the economy back on-track. Jan-May 2010 has seen phenomenal surge in demand of electricity. But come the 1/2 half of 2010, we began to see the dip in demand. That must be a start of another downward trend of electricity demand, as it dip 3 months straight.
I can see that, the fund for stimulus package has been used and a further injection is needed. This time around, has the Government money to inject? As for me, from electricity demand standpoint, I can see the downward trend and will be ready to lower down orders for fuel for electricity generation. A 0% growth rate is a very possible outcome.
My doa to Allah that my forecast is correct. Amin